Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures

In this paper we apply tempo-adjusted period parity progression ratios (Kohler and Ortega 2002) to Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain. These countries represent three distinct demographic patterns in contemporary Europe and are of particular interest for demographers. The goal of our analyses is to (a) describe past fertility trends in these countries in terms of synthetic cohorts and (b) project the level and distribution of completed fertility in cohorts who have not finished childbearing. Our analyses suggest that the most recent period fertility patterns in these countries do not imply substantial increases in childlessness even in younger cohorts. Moreover, if these patterns prevail in the future, young cohorts would reach completed fertility levels between 1.5–1.75. 1Head of Research Group on Social Dynamics and Fertility, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Doberaner Str. 114, 18057 Rostock, Germany. Tel: +49-381-2081-123, Fax: +49-381-2081-423, Email: [email protected], www: http://user.demogr.mpg.de/kohler. 2Departamento de Análisis Económico: Economı́a Cuantitativa, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, 28049Madrid, Spain, Email: [email protected], www: http://www.adi.uam.es/∼jaortega. http://www.demographic-research.org/ 145 Demographic Research Volume 6, Article 7